The Market Report

August 14, 2018

This week I want to bring two issues to the table now, because planning for the future in this business take’s some forward thinking. Even the smallest of changes in this business will not show results for almost a year. For example if we change the vaccination program this fall the real benefits will not be seen until next spring or summer when you sell your calves. Those benefits show up when buyers are willing to pay a premium for your calves that have a great vaccination program. The real benefits from those quality vaccinations might not be seen until next fall when the buyer thinks wow those calves I bought last summer at 101 Livestock Market have sure done great.  The cattle never got sick and I haven’t lost one. I would sure like to buy those cattle again next year. In the car business for example if you have a model that isn’t selling you just stop ordering that car and you get rewarded for that decision almost immediately. It’s easy to see how forward thinking in the cattle business sets us apart from a lot of other businesses because things don’t happen that fast in the cattle production cycle.

If we apply forward thinking to buying bulls and this year you buy $PROFIT bulls, the results of buying those bulls won’t show up for eighteen months. The first thing you might see is the visual change.  However, it will be thirty months before you see the real results in feed efficiency and the value in a balanced EPD selection process that produces the very best in carcass quality.

I liken this business to building a good sports team. For example, the team in question might have had an outstanding roster last year but only won half of their games. The coach has two choices to make for the next year. First, when the coach gathers his team together for their first meeting he can say we did pretty good last year and if we all work a little harder this year we can win 3/4 of our games this season.
His second choice might be something like this. The coaching staff has been working with management all through the off season. We have made some big changes for this season including hiring some new assistant coaches and contracting some new exciting players that will help us all in our effort to produce a winning championship team. We want everyone to know this new approach to this game is only a start and we will be analyzing and expanding every part of this organization as we go forward so we can have the very best team anyone could field. I don’t think it’s hard to see which approach to producing a winning team would have the greatest chance for success.

Everyone I talk to wants to create a better cow herd and have the best calves to sell. Just like creating a winning sports team we need to make changes in the way we do business. To keep the same players, coaching staff, and playbook for next year and expect a better result has often been called the definition of insanity. So this year in the off season let’s go out and buy the best bulls on the market. We not only want good bulls but we also want value, just like a good sports team with only so much money to spend. That again leads us to Topline Leachman sired bulls. Bulls that don’t cost any more than any other bulls here in California but the real value is off the charts. Bulls that will start the ball rolling for you on producing the very best calves on the market eighteen months from this fall.

The critical part of this whole change in producing the best is the time factor. If you make the change in bulls this fall then in eighteen months you will have calves that eat less, gain more and will provide their buyer with the very best in carcass quality. If you choose not to buy Topline Leachman bulls this year and put it off until next year then the opportunity to sell the very best calves also moves from eighteen months out to thirty months. So like a good sports team with a great coach you need to create a plan today that starts to move you in the right direction to build a great cow herd. Yes, your cow herd is just like your own sports team.  Vaccinations, minerals and Topline Leachman bulls set the stage for a winning calf crop in 2020.

Now about the market. There has been some interesting things going on all summer that we might make note of. The fat cattle futures continues to lag behind real cash. I’ve never seen this situation last for so long and the difference as great as it has been this year. I feel that because the real inventory isn’t out there when the packer needs cattle he has to pay up for them. Another important fact is that the   packer is getting different signals from the feeders. For example, carcass weights will be lower in one report and then higher in another. If the carcass weights were in a trend down that would be a big plus to the fat cattle market but cheap grain seems to make feeders add pounds not subtract them. The current fat cattle prices are making feeders lose money and historically they will put that to an end by buying cheaper replacements. When that might occur is anybody’s guess but worth keeping in mind.
Jim Warren (831)320-3698

Here are some representative sales from this week’s auction.


 

Representative Sales

 

16 Blk, Char 322# steers sold for $215.00

16 Blk, Char 400# steers sold for $193.00

7 Blk, BWF, Red 510# steers sold for $174.50

26 Blk, BBR, Char 556# steers sold for $166.75

10 Blk 612# steers sold for $156.00

6 Blk 668# steers sold for $145.00

31 Blk, BWF, B BR 673# steers sold for $152.00

14 Blk, B BR 700# steers sold for $141.50

19 Blk, BWF, B BR 807# steers sold for $125.00

 

18 Blk, Char 348# heifers sold for $187.00

29 Blk, BWF 555# heifers sold for $150.00

20 Red, WF 582# heifers sold for $145.00

20 Blk 596# heifers sold for $135.00

10 Blk, Red 636# heifers sold for $141.00

42 Blk, BWF, B BR 694# heifers sold for $132.75

SAVE THE DATES

 

INFORMATIONAL PRODUCER MEETINGS

DETAILED INFORMATION ON VACCINATIONS AND MINERALS AND HOW THEY CAN INCREASE THE VALUE OF YOUR HERD

LEARN ABOUT THE LATEST VACCINATION PROGRAMS OFFERED AND HOW THEY ADD VALUE TO YOUR CATTLE

WE WILL ALSO TALK ABOUT OUR UPCOMING BULL SALE ON OCTOBER 20TH

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THESE EVENTS WILL BE ANNOUNCED SOON

 

POTTER VALLEY

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 14, 2018

 

PETALUMA

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 15, 2018

 

TRES PINOS

THURSDAY OCTOBER 11, 2018

 

SLO COUNTY

DATE TO BE ANNOUNCED SOON

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BULL SALE

SATURDAY OCTOBER 20, 2018

101 LIVESTOCK MARKET

Cow
Grade low/cwt High/cwt
Cutters $51 $58
Boning Utility $58 $61
Breakers $62 $68
Young Cows $68 $74
Bulls
Grade Low/cwt High/cwt
High Yield $75 $80
Others $65 $75